The before mentioned domino effect of the nearly 2-month slowdown in ships coming out of the Middle East, is now beginning to manifest itself in the global shortages of aviation jet fuel, increased diesel fuel prices, and the key fertilizer components (urea and nitrogen).
Europe as a whole receives 75% of its aviation jet fuel from the Middle East. The U.S. produces much of its jet fuel domestically but it is also a different specification; Jet A versus Jet A-1 (used by the rest of the world) that affects things like flight routes/altitudes aircraft fly at.
Jet A-1 has a lower freezing point meaning those aircraft can fly at higher altitudes and/or take routes that have much colder temperatures. Adjustments would need to be made for a lot of global air routes when switching from A-1 to A. The U.S. carriers aren’t shielded though because everything else still is affected.
Japan similarly refines a portion of its jet fuel domestically, but also relies on imports from China (Australia also relies heavily on China for its aviation jet fuel). China began cutting back on fuel exports back in March which means that Asia and Australia/New Zealand will also be seeing impacts.
As a result, airlines are beginning to raise prices (via different means including baggage fee increases, fuel surcharges, and/or fare adjustments) as well as cancelling routes which means air travel is about to become disrupted globally. United is looking at raising fares/cutting routes while Lufthansa announced they are cutting 20,000 flights.
The linked article (above) has statements from various airliners which provide their individual analysis and steps they are taken (providing a bit more visibility of what they are forecasting based on the this midway point of April 2026 (where things are expected to really start going downhill beginning in May).
Diesel fuel prices have also gone up considerably, affecting truckers and farming machinery (these costs will be passed on to the consumers).
Fertilizer supplies are also being affected which means that farmers are feeling the effects on the crops and livestock feed which rely on this for their yields. Translation: this will have a different domino effect on the supply chain for food which is already being affected in already problematic food security spots, and will soon be felt in fully developed countries in the form of massive price hikes.
Air cargo shipping will also be impacted adding further stress onto the global supply chain. There will be some exceptions depending on where a country gets its main supply from. Portugal for example has most of its jet fuel supplied by Galp Energia, which sources its crude primarily from Brazil and processes it into jet fuel at its Sines refinery.
NHK WORLD quick summary:
