Apple’s “Hey Siri” media event observations

One of the first biggies is “3D Touch” (aka Force Touch) on the new iPhone 6s and 6s Plus.  Apple’s SVP of Software Engineering demoed the new 3D Touch with the “peek and pop” gestures where he casually mentioned that some of the usual functionality that we do with the home button can now be performed with force touch input.  This includes the double tap function which brings up the app switcher.  This can be performed by applying pressure to the screen and sliding from the side of the screen.

Why is this important?  Because this technology (with further refinement) is going to pave the way for the eventual removal of the home button.  The biggest technical challenge remaining is integrating Touch ID into the display.  The home button takes up a certain percentage of the bottom bezel of iDevices and due to Apple’s design ethos, the opposite bezel of the device will occupy the same amount of space.  Removal of the home button will allow reducing this bezel space further to make these devices physically smaller.

Moving to the new iPad Pro, the nod to different physical inputs (with the new smart keyboard and Apple Pencil) is the precursor to the eventual convergence between iOS and OS X in the portable computing arena.  What’s interesting is the support for a stylus.  When Steve Jobs unveiled the original iPhone, he essentially derided this as an input method (this came from a deep seeded dislike of John Sculley’s pet project, the Newton MessagePad) saying who would want to carry one of those (alluding to the fact that it is something that is also easy to lose) and made a point that the best input for a touch device was your finger.  The problem with a finger though is it’s a big target (so you lose precision in the process).

He also mentioned to biographer Walter Isaacson, “As soon as you have a stylus, you’re dead.” when discussing Microsoft’s and Bill Gates tablet initiatives.  This has to be taken in the context of the time when touch based input was not the norm (the stylus was used to interact with a UI that was still designed for keyboard/mouse/trackpad input).  Still though, it highlighted just how much Jobs was not a fan of the stylus.

But Jobs was also right when mentioning it’s another thing to carry around and potentially lose.  There is no obvious place to store this on the iPad Pro (the stylus for the MessagePad fit into the body itself; something that isn’t possible with the iPad due to its thinness).  Furthermore, to charge it requires removing a cap to reveal the Lightning connector (another thing to lose).  It’s like all the careful design thought in just this small area went out the door.

Microsoft was big on stylus based tablets (and was championed by its founder and former CEO, Bill Gates).  Apple went a completely different route with the iPad.  The irony is startling with the iPad Pro though with the bigger size and especially with the optional physical keyboard and stylus.  Gates had a vision that these kind of devices would become a huge part of computing in the future.  That vision obviously had Windows based devices in mind; the irony is that it could potentially be iPad’s leading that charge.

This isn’t to say that Surface Pro’s won’t do well either.  Matter of factly, I believe Windows 10 is a huge game changer for Microsoft because of their single OS, universal binary approach.  This is going to become more evident once those apps (especially from core developers) really begin taking advantage of that (where their UI’s are carefully designed and optimized for each mode).

With iPad Pro, the entire product is really part of a larger enterprise play which is only at the beginning of a huge mobile transformation (IT is just slow in that regards but with BYOD being so huge since much of that is being dictated at the executive level, IT has little choice but to move more rapidly).  And this entire smart keyboard attachment puts the product into that transformable tablet/laptop market which unsurprisingly, Microsoft’s Surface is also positioned for.  This particular product is also encroaching on MacBook Air territory.

Apple is taking a fairly long road to what I and many others see as an eventual convergence between iOS and OS X.  I’ve posted in the past about how they share common roots and that the main differences are the higher level I/O and its supporting frameworks/API’s (to keep everything locked down) as well as the touch based UI layer.  Microsoft however has taken the convergent route with Windows 10 and having the OS reconfigure itself (UI and input) on the fly.  This is significantly more challenging but also more elegant for the user if it all works (and if universal apps also work well in the process).

The point is that adding an actual (even if optional) hardware keyboard to the product, means that the entire ecosystem including apps, will have this hybrid approach to how they work.  And once many apps (especially productivity ones) support this, it just brings the level of convergence between the two platforms that much closer.

All of this hinges on continual hardware performance increases that minimizes any discernible differences between desktop class CPU/GPU.  IMHO, Intel still has many advantages in that space when it comes to sheer raw performance at the highest end.  So my point is more about the portable/mobile space where the lines between the iPad and MacBook form factors will begin to blur.  As far as actual desktop systems like the Mac mini, iMac, and Mac Pro, I don’t see that level of convergence because a mouse pointer will still reign in this area.

As for whether or not the iPad Pro can offset the yearly declines that the line has seen, I’m leaning more on the side of not really.  As an AAPL shareholder, this is why I tend to look at things from multiple angles.  While there will be consumer uptake, I believe the product is just too large and too expensive (especially by the time you tack on the extra for the stylus and keyboard).  A MacBook or even an entry level iMac would suffice for many people who won’t be taking advantage of the Apple Pencil.  And it remains to be seen just how many of these will be sold into the enterprise and/or creative/specialized markets.  If the unit sales of iPad’s don’t uptick appreciably in the next quarter, that aspect could offset the gains they make in other areas (given that Wall Street likes to weigh on this stock).  Basically, the iPad Pro does little to give anyone clear visibility of the upgrade cycle of Apple’s tablet line (a little bit more on that below).

Furthermore, Microsoft’s Surface Pro actually has better advantages on the software side given that Windows 10 can dynamically switch between keyboard (desktop) and touch (tablet) UI’s.  It uses the same x86-64 processor that desktops/laptops use meaning binary level compatibility for a huge library of apps (albeit the vast majority are still only optimized for a traditional keyboard/mouse/trackpad environment).  The hardware itself may not be as refined when it comes to the level of the industrial design of an iPad, but in enterprise deployments, the overall functionality is what is going to matter (and that is where universal binaries on Windows 10 is going to be a game changer IMHO).

Myself, I’m still on my first generation iPad mini (I also have a first generation iPad that is essentially not used now) and it more than suffices for what I use it for.  The iPad Pro doesn’t appeal to me due to its size.  The presentation gave a great comparison of the Pro versus the original iPad when it came to weight (they both are just a little over 1.5 pounds with the Pro being just a tad heavier).  Sure, this is still amazing considering the larger display of the Pro.  The thing is that for this type of form factor, it still is on the heavier side (the mini on the other hand felt right whichever way you used it).

But not even a Retina Display mini was enough to entice me to upgrade and neither does the new mini 4 with Touch ID and the upgraded internals.  Again, my first generation mini more than suffices.  My point is that I’m not the only one who has this very long upgrade cycle when it comes to the iPad lineup.  Last years larger form factor iPhone 6 Plus took a chunk out of that.  And I just use my MacBook Air and my Mac Pro for everything else.  Basically, Apple’s ulterior motive of wanting you to own multiple devices isn’t working with even a core (and somewhat captive) member of their ecosystem.

I don’t see the iPad Pro changing any of this.  I’m also not sure if Apple priced this correctly either (since it falls into MacBook Air territory once you move to the 128GB version).  I’ll be honest, given the choice between an iPad Pro and a Surface Pro 4, I would choose the later myself since it’s just going to be far more functional.  I realize there are sacrifices, pros/cons associated with this but it follows my long running mantra of “best tool to get the job done”.  And this is coming from someone who has been in the Apple camp since the early 90’s, and has never used Windows full time (back then, I moved to IBM’s OS/2).

But Windows 10 is the first version of Windows that I actually like and don’t have problems using (they actually got more things right than wrong and I credit their entire changed approach after Ballmer stepped down as CEO).  It’s why I’m not exactly counting Microsoft being out of the game yet when it comes to mobile computing.

Finally, Apple TV.  I also wrote before that apps would be “the killer application” for this product with an actual App Store.  They have now finally delivered on that.  The only area where my opinion has changed is with games.  There was a point before both Sony and Microsoft released the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One respectively, where I felt that an Apple set top box with gaming apps would represent a huge mindshare gain in this area.

As far as I’m now concerned, that ship has long sailed.  iOS games have established themselves as being on that casual gaming end of the spectrum whereas PlayStation 4 and Xbox One are effectively entrenched with just a wider variety of game titles from AAA studios.  Console gamers are going to stick with their respective platforms because of the library of titles they own.  I include myself in this as a PlayStation owner (and potential future Xbox One owner).

Furthermore, while both console platforms are effectively desktop hardware, the biggest key is controller input.  I do know there is the MFi program and there are controller cradles that one can place their iDevice in; my point is more about the fact regarding game designs at the UI and controller level (iOS games will tend towards touch based input whereas console games are designed specifically for direct control via an analog joystick).  Basically, these two specific console platforms don’t have anything to worry about so long as they both continue improving the software and their backend social gaming networks on their respective devices.

But as far as the rest of the apps go, this is going to be a long term play for changing the entire television viewing experience.  That crappy cable TV operator supplied POS is eventually going to go the way of the dinosaur especially if content providers get on board (not with just Apple TV, but also other boxes like this such as Roku as well as the apps that run on PlayStation 4 and Xbox One).  And as I also wrote before, there is an entire generation of content consumers whose preference is streamed media/on demand content; not the traditional CATV style with “shovelware” channels that many of us don’t even watch.

My biggest complaint with the prior versions of the iOS versions of the Apple TV was the atrocious iOS 7’ized UI (and before that, half-baked features like Home Sharing instead of using DLNA). 3rd party apps will at least allow DLNA to become a reality since Apple is just going to roll with their own iTunes specific frameworks.  As a result of the developer API’s and sanctioned application support, Apple has now branched the OS off into its own branded tvOS.  The company also said it will sport a “new” interface.  I wouldn’t actually call it new but probably more stylized and dynamic.  Siri is also a huge part of the new version when it comes to more granular control.

The biggest thing that made Apple TV a great impulse buy was its price point though.  With the initial hockey puck version, it saw an entry price of $99.  Recently, the price has dropped to $69.  The new device now starts off at $149 for the 32GB model ($199 for 64GB).  Granted, the hardware is greatly improved (faster processor, greater on-board flash storage, touch based remote) but at this new price range, it’s no longer that quick buy (this is why they are keeping the old version around but given this new box, the small 8GB on-board flash storage isn’t going to cut it for much of the functionality; matter of factly, the Apple TV app store won’t be available for it).

The way that I look at this Apple TV is this; it’s not going to be the standard by any long shot without the long rumored streaming television service package (that one is difficult due to all of the licensing not to mention, how to deal with local providers).  What it will do is have a major impact on the user experience just as it did with the iPhone.  This box is meant for those already established in the Apple ecosystem when it comes to iTunes (and Apple Music) content, and with more pay-as-you-go services, make it an even stickier ecosystem.  But it gives content providers a lot more to work with in terms of tapping into this huge revenue potential via an app centric approach.

So just as Apple eventually made an impact where a company like T-Mobile did away with contracts (and has now effected industry wide change with both AT&T and Verizon also moving away from the subsidized model), a similar sort of impact will eventually hit the cable TV industry when it comes to the current bundled channel model.  That is a good thing for consumers.