The earlier tracks for this one was initially a landfall on Shikoku. The guidance has consistently shifted westwards though which takes it through Kyushu, and then directly over the Honshu and Shikoku (as of today). The following are from JTWC.
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| August 21 – Warning #1 |
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| August 24 – Warning #14 |
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| August 27 – Warning #21 |
Run of that August 27th projected path (other models show this track shifted eastwards). Regardless, this will be a huge rain making event which means a lot flooding and potential landslides across the country (we’re still several days out from guidance for Honshu past Kyoto though).
There was also this “wild” GFS model showing the system stalling and looping around the Kyushu area for a few days (which obviously would be bad) but is hopefully an outlier.
I know (from having experienced multiple typhoons while living there) that the majority of typhoons aren’t of the catastrophic super typhoon variety (what would be a major hurricane of category 3-5 across the other side of the International Date Line). Still, there have been really strong ones like the one in 2018 that wreaked havoc in the Kansai area. Japan being a disaster-prone place (weather plus earthquakes/tsunami), disaster preparedness is always part of the reality (for many, it is second nature) and nature will do what it wants to do. Stay safe if you are in the cone of uncertainty with this storm.