If you read various tech blogs and forum threads on the Apple rumor sites, that is the impression one would get, especially since there was no iPhone 5 with a complete redesign. What is ironic about that whole thing is it was these rumors and tech blog sites which really placed the whole iPhone 5 hype into overdrive and pushed the expectation levels high where anything less would psychologically feel like a major letdown. That itself fueled the talking heads on Wall Street and the HFT black box algorithms which ended up pushing AAPL to all time highs (in the $420 per share range) a couple of weeks ago only to see those same algorithms drive shares down to as low in the $360 range on October 4.
But then this isn’t anything new as this cycle occurs like clockwork leading up to most Apple events. As a matter of fact, the speculation is already beginning as to when the iPhone 5 (or whatever the next version will be called) will be released (and whether or not, it will include 4G-LTE as well as that teardrop wedge design). This is one of the reasons I don’t participate much on such sites because it is not my idea of a good/productive use of time. More often than not, the stuff thrown out is so far from the reality. tl;dr – Some peoples expectations aren’t reasonable nor pragmatic.
With the iPhone 4S, it looks like Apple is following a pattern of performing a major redesign (in terms of form factor) every 2 years. In between are the incremental upgrades in the form of hardware and software (and this isn’t to say Apple will always follow this cycle either). With the 4S, the internal upgrades aren’t minor at all; they are rather significant considering the price points remaining the same (plus there is finally the addition of a 64GB model). The fact the device is now a world phone (with both GSM and CDMA) also is a plus from the manufacturing side of the equation and for users who travel internationally often.
I’m not dismissing the importance of form factor redesigns every now and then especially when it comes to products aimed at the general consumer market. But considering the iPhone 4 form factor has been out for just a little over an year + few months (compared to the form factor sported by the first through third generation iPhone’s – which saw minor changes), did it realistically make any sense that it would change completely after just one iteration. This is more obvious when it took Apple many months to even meet demand not to mention, the long delay in finally being able to release the white model. At least to me, it didn’t make sense that Apple would change form factors requiring a whole new retooling and therefore, associated supply chain challenges. I’m not going to even go into the form over function aspect of the teardrop wedge casing that was being speculated on; that was covered quite well over at Daring Fireball.
Yet, if you scan some of the tech blogs and forums, you would think the iPhone 4S is going to be a failure in comparison to the iPhone 4 or the latest Android-based smartphones. The thing is that the online tech blogsphere is far from being any close to representative of the consumer marketplace. Their main agenda is eyeballs to drive traffic to generate ad revenue. Hell, there is still a sizeable demographic out there which does not yet own a smartphone. Myself being a techie, I don’t own a smartphone yet (tech blasphemy). I fall into that demographic who does not want to be constantly connected in terms of always having access to e-mail or net connectivity let alone, having it glued to my ear. I have a cheap dumb phone with a low cost plan (my yearly use in terms of voice minutes does not even add up into the hours range) just so that I have something for emergency purposes. For the non telephony stuff, I have an iPod touch (which I don’t even use much as a music player). For someone like myself (and contrary to the disbelief of those who are smartphone users and have a difficult time groking that not everyone out there has one in some form or another), does the 4S change anything? Possibly given that it is now a world phone plus the fact that I can buy it unlocked. I can already see the “you are crazy” thoughts forming by anyone reading this.
Let me explain a bit more in detail… I’m one of those folks who now places a premium priority on their personal time (this was not always the case in the past). I’m one of those who doesn’t like having a phone glued to their ear, nor do I have a need to be constantly texting, constantly tweeting, constantly e-mailing, or being constantly connected to the Internet. Many people in the tech industry aren’t like that (where it is about gadgets and being constantly connected to their social networks) so I like to think of myself as more of an exception to the norm. As such, being tied to a contract for 2 years for both voice and data plans which I’m not going to even make use of makes little sense (the only way it would make sense is if all of that rollovers into unused minutes and bandwidth). I’m one of those who can make do with a low cost pre-paid plan or pay per call (if the mobile cellular providers business models weren’t so craptacular, maybe I would feel far more charitable about not giving a damn paying for a service I’m not going to make much use of).
My 4th generation 64GB iPod touch was $400+ but compared to the hardware in even the iPhone 4, it has a inferior display and inferior camera (in terms of its sensor, lack of autofocus, and number of lens elements). An unsubsidized iPhone 4S with 64GB of storage will run around $849. Sure, that seems steep if you are looking at it as mainly a phone. However, the various iOS based platforms while labeled for marketing purposes, are much more than that. The value proposition of the iPhone 4S is its hardware in terms of its mobile computing prowess (I view it as a more portable version of the iPad which I also own but is a pure stay at home device for me). For someone like myself who does not need even the lowest priced voice and data plans (which over 2 years, would cost around $1300 in addition to the $399 for the subsidized iPhone), the total cost of ownership over those two years would be higher than if I purchased it unsubsidized. Furthermore, Apple has held off updating the iPod touch to better specs for 2011 which makes its value proposition even worse from a hardware perspective. With the 4S, I’d get better quality hardware in return for the things that I actually do make heavy use of like the camera (both still and video), as there are times where having to carry a full size HD video camera and DSLR is a hassle. The quality of photos and video taken by the iPhone 4 were already superb but the 4S ones rival some of the better point and shoot cameras out there. In otherwords, it is about the ability to consolidate devices (which has both tangible and intangible benefits). The fact they can be purchased unlocked is an added bonus (for people like me) and as such, the 4S (unlocked 64GB model) may end up being my first smartphone purchase (even though I will not be making much use of the telephony hardware). As you can see, this illustrates how different individuals needs can be and how the perceived value of a product can change depending on what one considers important.
Which brings me back to the original question of this topic. For someone who tends towards the pragmatic, I’ve always viewed Apple’s announcements with a dose of contrarianism (and more so when the rumormill tends to go into overdrive and pushes the level of hype to unrealistic heights). Tech pundits, more so some of the younger ones (especially those born with a silver spoon in their mouths and expect instant grafication including rapid product life cycles) rarely if ever groked Apple and the way they do things (you see it all the time when it is about specs and who has the biggest e-penis). While the announcement may have been underwhelming to them (which again, was the result of the hype generated by them), the average general consumer out there who has their own personal needs and purchasing cycles cares little about such things. Walk into an Apple Retail Store and you’ll see and hear what I mean. So while the tech crowd in general felt this event was boring, it is my belief the iPhone 4S will do even better than the iPhone 4 in terms of its sales numbers.
